Toronto Maple Leafs Prospects: Connor Brown vs. Ryan Rupert

In the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, the Toronto Maple Leafs had back-to-back picks in the sixth round.  With those selections they took forwards Connor Brown (156th, Erie Otters) and Ryan Rupert (157th, London Knights).

On Friday night, Brown’s Erie Otters took on Rupert’s London Knights.

The two players play opposite roles for their teams.  Brown rides shotgun with 15-year-old phenom Connor McDavid on the Otters’ first line, while Rupert plays pivot on the Knights’ checking line.  In fact, Rupert and his linemates were given the task of shutting down the Brown line on Friday.

In the first period, Rupert and Brown went head to head in all but one of their even strength shifts.  The Brown line was dominant, holding an 11-3 shot attempt advantage in the period.  Shot attempts are used to calculate a statistic called CORSI, which includes all shots that are blocked, shots that miss the net and shots on target.  To be fair to Rupert, out of the eight non-neutral zone faceoffs, six of them were in the defensive zone.  Although zone start differential was a contributing factor to the shot discrepancy, Rupert and his linemates lacked the quickness to keep up as he was a step behind McDavid at all times.

Starting in the second period, Knights coach Dale Hunter changed his matchup and went with a line centered by San Jose Sharks second round pick Scott Tierney.  Tierney along with Josh Anderson (Blue Jackets, 95th overall) and Bo Horvat (projected first round pick 2013) had much better success against Brown and his line mates.  They carried the play for the final two periods with a 14-6 shot attempt advantage, although Brown’s line did get the tying goal on the power play.

Rupert is said to be an agitator but I rarely saw him engage physically on this night.  It could be because he had trouble keeping up with the quicker McDavid.  Rupert did have more success after the first period when he was not in a defensive role but if he wants to make it to the NHL, it will be his defensive play and his pugnacity that gets him there.

In the end it was Connor Brown and the Otters who got the win as Brown scored the shootout winner after Rupert was stopped on a weak attempt.

Below is a summary of some stats I took for the two players:

***Note shot attempt and zone start data are for even strength shifts only***

Seeing as both Brown and Rupert are sixth round draft picks, the odds are against them even playing a game in the NHL let alone being a productive player.  Historically 70 percent of sixth round picks have never played a game in the NHL, with nearly 85 percent playing less than 50 games.  So to expect anything more from these two players at this point in their development would be foolish.

I don’t think it is fair to make judgements on a player after one game but neither player showed much on this night.  Brown was the more effective of the two, generating a couple scoring chances, but he was probably the ninth or tenth best forward on the ice.

Although I can’t say for sure that Brown and Rupert are nothing more than future minor league players, neither did enough to raise my expectations.  One thing I can say for certain after watching that game is that Connor McDavid is a stud on the ice.

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