Should the Toronto Maple Leafs Follow the Vancouver Canucks Model?

The application of advanced statistics is in its infancy in the NHL, but one team in particular seems to be applying them more liberally than others.

If you were to look at an offensive zone start percentage chart of NHL forwards playing at least 40 games in 2011-12, the top three and bottom three players on that list belong to the same team. That team would be the Presidents’ trophy winning Vancouver Canucks.

Offensive zone start percentage is simply the percentage of non-neutral zone shifts that are started in the offensive zone versus the defensive zone.  Most players can be found in the 46 percent – 54 percent range with some being higher or lower due to their role on the team. But the Canucks have taken things to an extreme level.

In the tables below we have the top three forwards and the bottom three forwards on the Canucks and Toronto Maple Leafs in terms of offensive zone start percentage (minimum 40 games played).

Table 1: Top Forwards (Vancouver and Toronto) – Offensive Zone Start Percentage (Minimum 40 GP)

Table 2: Bottom Forwards (Vancouver and Toronto) – Offensive Zone Start Percentage (Minimum 40 GP)

When we look at these numbers we see some clear differences in the way these two teams use their forwards.  However, the Leafs are in no way different than any other team in the league.

There is no other player in the NHL with an offensive zone start percentage higher than 66.8 and on the reverse end there is no other player in the league with a percentage less than 28.5. The Canucks are clearly applying this information in a much different way than any other team in the league. Since they have been among the best teams for the last four seasons, maybe it’s something others, like the Maple Leafs, should start implementing themselves.

The Canucks try as much as they can to get their top forwards on the ice in the offensive zone.  By doing this it gives them an advantage in creating shot attempts and ultimately scoring goals.  They are also taking advantage of the fact that players who start in the offensive zone get more shot attempts. Who better to take those extra shots than your best players?

It is also harder to play minutes in the defensive zone, so by dispersing the minutes this way, they are actually helping their top line save some energy. This allows them to play more minutes late in games.

Newly signed Maple Leaf Jay McClement is used to starting his shifts in the defensive zone.  McClement had an offensive zone start percentage of 34.3 and he was the only avalanche forward below 50 percent.  Clearly his coach, Joe Sacco, felt that he did his best work in the defensive zone.

It will be interesting to see how Maple Leaf coach Randy Carlyle uses McClement and the rest of his checking line.  If he decides to implore zone splits similar to the Canucks then his first line is sure to see a boost in production.  However, looking back at Carlyle’s history with the Ducks does not give us any indication that he will implore such a philosophy.

An article by Cam Charron at the Vancouver Province summarizes a recent radio interview Canucks general manager, Mike Gillis, did with the Team 1040 radio station in Vancouver.  In that interview, Gillis spoke openly about using advanced analytics to monitor things like zone starts and more recently to try and measure fatigue and its impact on success and failure.

This is a breath of fresh air in the hockey analytics world to hear an NHL team speak about these types of advanced statistics.  In contrast, Maple Leafs president and general manager Brian Burke, was quoted saying “There has not been a statistical breakthrough that I’ve seen in hockey.  Everybody is looking for these ‘Moneyball’ breakthroughs. … I have yet to see anything that has value in terms of an alternative way of evaluating players.” He said this while participating on a panel at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference.

Now just because he has not found any “statistical breakthroughs” does not mean that the Maple Leaf organization is not looking at these different numbers, it just means they have not found anything worth applying.

Maybe they should look at the Vancouver Canucks for some direction.

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