Can the Toronto Maple Leafs Take Advantage of a Lower Salary Cap?

As we approach September 15 reality is starting to sink in that there will likely be a lockout in the NHL.  This is clearly not good news for anyone involved, especially the fans of the league. Even though the two sides appear to be at a standstill, recent dealings between the NHL and the NHLPA have led to some optimism that the two parties will be able to reach a deal without missing too much time.

The main area of contention is determining what the split of hockey related revenue (HRR) will be.  With the current collective bargaining agreement the players get 57 percent of HRR.  That number is sure to go down and it is most likely going to be closer to a 50 percent split, similar to the NBA.  If the salary cap is to drop, we can expect the players will not be taking a salary roll back like they did in 2005.

A 50 percent HRR split would lower the salary cap from its current level of $70.2 million to $61.6 million.  According to CapGeek, this would put 12 teams over the cap, including the Toronto Maple Leafs.  With no salary roll back there will likely be a provision for an amnesty buyout in the new CBA.  Like in 2005, this will give teams the option to buy out a player with no penalty against their salary cap.  This would help a number of teams, including the Maple Leafs, but it won’t be the answer for all.

Leafs general manager Brian Burke has been a stalwart against the long-term cap circumvention type deals that many teams have employed over the term of the current CBA.  For some teams these deals could put a hamper on their future plans if there is a lower salary cap and/or other changes to the new CBA.   So the question remains, can Burke and the Maple Leafs take advantage of these teams if there is a lower salary cap?

The Maple Leafs have a couple options when it comes to an amnesty buyout; both Tim Connolly and Mike Komisarek are making just under $5 million.  Connolly is the most likely target as the Maple Leafs have a glut of centermen and he doesn’t quite fit with the roster.

Buying out Connolly would leave the Maple Leafs approximately $1.5 million under the projected cap, which does not leave them a lot of wiggle room to make moves.  But the Maple Leafs also have the means financially to “bury” players in the minors if needed.  One candidate who comes to mind is Matthew Lombardi.  If they were to drop Lombardi they would save another $3.5 million.

Below is the list of the other 11 teams that are over the cap, along with their potential buyout candidates.  Looking at the buyout candidates there aren’t many desirable pieces (assuming Tim Thomas does sit out the season), which is understandable given that teams are going to pay them to go away with nothing in return.

Keith Ballard is an interesting case as he might be someone that Leaf management would consider at a much reduced rate to add depth to their blue line.

There are a number of teams that are still over the projected cap even after the amnesty buyout, but there is one team that sticks out the most for me here: the San Jose Sharks.

The Sharks don’t have a clear-cut buyout candidate, which leaves them almost $4 million over the projected cap with two players still left to sign.  They are going to have to make some tough decisions with their high priced players, and that might include Ryan Clowe.

The Maple Leafs have long been rumored to be interested in the Sharks winger.  He is a physical presence that can ride shotgun on one of the top two lines and is an unrestricted free agent following the season with a cap hit of nearly $4 million.

Clearly there are going to be a number of teams that will be in trouble if the split off HRR approaches 50 percent and the salary cap is lowered accordingly.  The Maple Leafs appear to have some flexibility and should be able to take advantage of teams like the Sharks that might have their backs against the wall to try and get under the cap before the start of the season.  Whether they can do it is another story.

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Salary information provided by Cap Geek.

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